Space Frontier
"Market research suggested that there were that sort of number of people [7,000] willing to agree to that sort of price [$210,000]. We have committed £60 million and we have had a tremendous take-up. All indicators are that the risk was worth taking."
- Richard Branson, 22 October 2004
Space tourism is here. In case you didn't do the math in your head by now, that figure is $1.47 billion. Seven thousand people are willing to pay $210K to fly into space.
In 1990, Space Travel Services announced its offer to provide a $30 million trip to the Soviet space station Mir for sweepstakes participants who could register by calling a 900 number or entering by mail (for free). That company still has hundreds of thousands of letters received from prospective entrants. Some 675,000 called the phone number and paid $2.99 for some information about space and free entry into the contest in the first week, before the project was shut down by legal interference. At that rate of entry, even assuming that the 12 semi-finalist announcements didn't stimulate further interest, the company would have netted $75 million on its project from phone calls alone. The corporate sponsorships would have been icing on the cake.
In 1998, Harry Dace had about 55 passengers who pre-paid up to $5,500 each for suborbital trip to space. According to a recent newspaper account, Dace's venture was shut down in the face of a NASA Inspector General investigation. Dace returned the money to his prospective passengers, as he had carefully kept it all in escrow.
One of the first space tourism entrepreneurs was Bob Truax. He offered a trip aboard his Volksrocket about 1978, which a would-be astronaut paid $100,000 to reserve. In the event, neither the rocket nor the trip materialized.
So, it isn't exactly news that people want to fly in space. Some who have proclaimed their willingness are William Shatner who used to play a starship captain on some show about a socialistic future without money, Red Hot Chile Peppers guitarist Dave Navarro, and an unnamed Hollywood director who has booked an entire ship - perhaps for friends, perhaps for enemies, nobody is saying.
We're reminded that in 1988 or so, John Denver proposed to take a trip to the Soviet space station to have a look around. Before he balked at the $10 million price tag, "Bloom County" ran a cartoon wherein the gopher was told that the Soviets had agreed to fly John Denver in space. "That's good news! That's good news indeed! That's news we can all be pleased by!" said the usually grumpy gopher.
Two frames later, the gopher says, "You don't suppose they plan to bring him back, do you?"
In addition to the sixty million pounds for promoting their Virgin Galactic project, Virgin has spent fourteen million pounds buying the licensing rights to Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne.
Five and nine-seat designs are being developed to travel at Mach 3 and provide the trips. Each journey will last about three and a half hours while the ships are carried aloft, fire their rockets, and spend about 6 minutes in weightless flight, reaching perhaps 70 miles altitude, before returning to land at a runway. The first flights will be reserved for Branson and family. The first launches will be in 2008 if all goes according to schedule, and one will carry Branson's 90 year old (by then) father Ted.
Virgin is planning five spaceships, which Branson now has to figure out whence to fly. By some estimates, it would cost upwards of $200 million to gain FAA certification for this venture if operated from the United States, which is so ludicrous the entire Bush administration would do well to resign in embarrassment. No doubt there are many other places in the world from which to fly. It ought to be a political embarrassment and a national disgrace that the Americans who invented this technology would have to leave the USA to fly on their own craft as passengers, but you just know nothing would be done about it.
Way back in 1990 before pursuing the Space Travel Services project, we obtained a research report from Rockwell International that suggested that as many as 300 million people worldwide were interested in flying in space. Another report we reviewed indicated that as many as 250 million people when asked what they wanted to do about space would volunteer "I want to take a trip into space." We reviewed the methodology of these studies before making any assumptions based upon them.
Of course, a trip into space costs money. So, taking only one tenth of the lower figure, and supposing that these ten percent would be able to pay $20,000 for a trip into space, we predicted a $500 billion industry. Perhaps fewer than ten percent of those twenty-five million passengers could be accommodated the first year, but the volume of interested passengers would grow as the price dropped in future years.
Obviously, it didn't happen as soon as we felt it should. It didn't happen not because the economics were poor or because the technology was difficult or dangerous. It didn't happen, and thus far for most people it still hasn't happened, because the government of the USA stood in the way.
In other news, the evil thieves who work for NASA have finally gotten their Cassini-Huygens spacecraft to the vicinity of Saturn. Those of us who were enthusiasts for space activities remember when NASA proposed the Cassini mission, the political fights for funding, and the endless delays after NASA blew up its then-largest batch of astronauts aboard Challenger. Given the abandonment by NASA of its half of the Solar Polar orbiter project, which more than halved the scientific value from the European part of the mission, we're surprised the European Space Agency is still on speaking terms with NASA. But, there is "honor among thieves" we suppose.
The current mission includes the Cassini spacecraft, named after the famous Italian astronomer who first identified the major division in Saturn's rings which bears his name. It also contains the Huygens package that is projected to separate from Cassini and enter the upper atmosphere of Titan about 14 January 2005. The Huygens spacecraft will parachute through the clouds, and land on the surface, if all goes well. Christian Huygens was a famous Dutch astronomer, watch maker, Enlightenment scholar, bon vivant, and correspondent with the likes of Newton and Leibniz.
Since the tax money has already been stolen, you might as well visit JPL's web site to see the images they've bought with all that money their henchmen at the IRS stole. And you may as well be bitter about it.
Here's how things stand for the stock we recommended in this sector:
SpaceDev is up two cents on last week's price. It appears to have made an end of down-trend signal, if you believe in technical analysis. Or it has made an end of down-trend "horsey" anyway. (We often view technical analysis as comparable to seeing a bunny or horsey in the clouds.) In the two months since we recommended SpaceDev it is up $0.21 or 14% of its price of $1.50 when we recommended it. Annualized, assuming it keeps up this rate of improvement, that's an 84% annual rate of return.
Longevity
"While the government brags about statistical improvements, it ignores the horrific lifelong debilities suffered by those fortunate enough to survive cancer. The dreadful reality is that those successfully treated with conventional cancer therapies often suffer from chronic pain, depression, fatigue, immune suppression, mental impairment, disfigurement, and other side effects. On top of that, cancer survivors usually have higher risks of developing heart disease, stroke, and new cancers. Many of these lethal side effects, plus recurrence of the original tumor, can happen after the five year survival milestone has been achieved."
- William Faloon, LE, Oct 2004
This week's topic: cancer. This week's product: Wobenzym.
It was just a few months ago that we learned that Dad has prostate cancer. So far it seems to be under control with hormone shots. Over the weekend, we heard that a brother has a brain tumor causing double vision and pinching one of his cranial nerves from inside some sinus cavity - very hard to operate upon.
So, that's odd, the Wobenzym.com site is all about inflammatory distress from arthritis, right? Not entirely. Arthritis is just one of the inflammation-related illnesses that systemic enzymes may help with. Cancer is another.
Amidst all the scary propaganda and facts surrounding FDA-approved medicines for athritis, some of which evidently cause strokes and death, it is not surprising that the Wobenzym promoters are focusing on its application to assist arthritis sufferers. And, as arthritis is a condition related to aging, we should mention it here. Arthritis sufferers should find significant relief by taking glucosamine and chondroiten, two chemicals needed for healthy joint function. Importantly, if you have a family history of arthritis, you would do yourself a favor by taking these supplements from age 40 or above, to condition your body to the availability of glucosamine sulfate and chondroiten. The tablets are fairly inexpensive, available in bulk at Wal-Mart, and come in a variety of shapes and sizes. We don't recommend glucosamine sulfate by itself, however.
Wobenzym is a collection of enzymes. So, what are enzymes? Enzymes are proteins which assist the body's cells in all the chemical reactions. Like all proteins, enzymes are composed of amino acids arranged in chains which fold auto-magically into three-dimensional structures. These structures interact with each other and other things n the environment, and their shapes dictate their functions. Enzymes are involved in the metabolic and physiological process of the body, especially immune system function, cardiovascular fitness, nervous system function and health, and hormonal balance.
Obviously, since they are so essential, the body produces its own supply. However, as with all things related to longevity, the body seems to have limitations. Certain junk foods, notably partially or fully hydrogenated fats found in many packaged foods and notably in peanut butter, use up enzymes at an alarming rate. Oh, sure, partially hydrogenated vegetable oil sounds like a blessing, but it seems to be compounded with curse.
Let's take a moment to talk about aging in general and hydrogenation in particular. Cancer seems to occur less frequently in animals which have deep sea homes. For example, lobsters seem to have no problem expressing telomerase not only in their stem cells but in their somatic or body cells. They live under five to twenty meters of water, which is more than enough to guard against all cosmic rays and most solar rays. Anyone who has seen a swimming pool nuclear reactor will instantly understand that the sea life is protected from radiation under a depth of water.
Humans and most animals that live on land do not express telomerase in their somatic cells. If they did, the incidence of malignant cancer would be much higher. Malignant cancer cells are cancerous, like benign tumors, but have turned on the expression of telomerase, so they can go on dividing endlessly. The body can trap benign tumors and seal them off, because the benign tumor wants to divide its cells endlessly but doesn't express telomerase and so has cellular mortality. Telomerase provides cellular immortality, and when it occurs in cells that are already out of control - functioning independently of the body's control mechanisms - the result is disaster for the host.
As we see more "primitive" animals expressing telomerase and having cellular immortality, there must have been some adaptive benefit to changing to a genetic code that expresses telomerase in stem cells but not in somatic cells. What is that advantage? The advantage is longevity. It seems weird, giving up cellular immortality to gain longevity, but that is what happens.
In the above-sea environment, we have far more mutagens, especially from solar and cosmic radiation. So, we have a greater incidence of cancer. Yet, we are adapted to the ecological niches above the sea, so we have to live with that situation, somehow. The clever adaptation is to put off cancer from childhood and adolescence into middle age or later. How? The body which doesn't express telomerase in somatic cells gets much less cancer. The cancers is does get tend to be benign. Only rarely do early cancers provide the genetic alteration to express telomerase and reach for cellular immortality, killing the host. Of course, as time goes on, the chances that a given cancer cell would be able to express telomerase increase, as the number of cancer cells in the body increases. But, rarely in childhood do we see cancers killing the host. So, most children survive without cancer, become adolescents and adults capable of procreation, reproduce, pass along their genetic information to the next generation, continue to learn from experiences, live long enough to pass along environmentally useful information of a learned nature to two or more generations, then become senescent, and succumb to cancer or some other age-related illness.
It is not in nature's plan that all organisms must die this instant. With intelligence comes the possibility of increasing your own longevity, experiencing more of life, and thereby bettering not only yourself but those with whom you have contact. For various reasons, it may be possible to extend human lifespan to hundreds or even thousands of years. Such is ambition.
So what's all this about peanut butter? Most peanut butter contains fully hydrogenated vegetable oil. Most packaged foods have a long shelf life (two years or more) because they include partially hydrogenated vegetable oil as an ingredient. Why? It kills most bacteria and many other organisms.
What is hydrogenation? It is the process of taking an ordinary food oil, like corn oil or peanut oil, and passing it over a nickel catalyst. Other metals are used, but nickel is fairly typical. A hydrogen ion is released from the metal and the oil becomes hydrogenated. It ceases to be oily and becomes semi-solid.
The extra hydrogen ions make a big difference. These are the free radicals that biologists talk about doing so much damage, and which anti-oxidants are meant to scavenge. So, of course, partial hydrogenation is "good" if your purpose is to find a tool to keep crackers from going rancid or to keep foods at room temperature that otherwise require refrigeration. Yes, partially hydrogenated vegetable oil does prevent a lot of biological activity, so if preserving foods at room temperature for months or years is vital, if there is no other way to have food, then there is som value to this tool. But, in fact, the same things that create difficulty for bacteria and other organisms are often also a difficulty for humans. Sure, starving to death is the more immediate problem. Don't forego partially hydrogenated vegetable oil if it is that or death from starvation. But, if you have the means to keep food on the table, look at the labels.
In fact, you'll see that some large bakeries have begun adding beta carotene to their products which have partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Beta carotene has useful anti-oxidant properties and so the intention may be to try to ameliorate the problems of putting free radicals into foods. The next step, of course, is to get the inventory flow to the point where fresh food reaches customers in a timely fashion. Then there won't be any need for partial hydrogenation. People a hundred years from now will look back on this idea of putting poisons in our food to keep the food "fresh" as a barbaric ritual akin to bleeding sick patients to "balance their humors."
Of course, junk foods are not the only way to use up needful enzymes. Many medicines that are important for healing or health are also contributing to the loss of enzymes. And with advancing years, the body simply doesn't have the ability to produce desirable enzymes. Many of the functions that enzymes assist with either take place at a reduced rate or are not completed. Enzymes can be catalytic, promoting faster action in vital chemical reactions.
One important class of enzymes is the proteolytic enzymes. The term means "chewing proteins" and the function is to break down proteins into amino acids. Proteolytic enzymes are desirable because they break down aberrant proteins that arise with various diseases. Wobenzym in particular has been found to degrade harmful and abnormal immune complexes that precipitate auto-immune diseases. Many of these immune complexes thicken the blood, which is a precursor condition for quite a few diseases and adverse conditions.
Proteolytic enzymes such as those found in Wobenzym have ben shown to help cancer patients. The evil USA Food and Drug Administration is considering approval for "Wobe-Mugos" which is a related product, for "orphan drug status" as a therapy for multiple myeloma, a cancer of certain types of blood cells. Work on Wobenzym and Wobe-Mugos involved clinical studies at MUCOS Pharma and the pioneering research of Dr. Max Wolf and Dr. Helen Benitez. More recent work by Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez and the Cornell University Med school show that proteolytic enzymes are effective in the clinical management of pancreatic cancer.
The enzymes in Wobenzym are pancreatin, papain, bromelain, trypsin, chymotrypsin, and rutosid. Owing to their structural fragility, a certain amount of chemical knowledge goes into their manufacture, so that the enzymes don't break down in the heat of the manufacturing process. As well, you take them "away from food," typically two hours after eating and 45 minutes before a meal.
The immune system is highly complex, and immune system functions are the focus of considerable research, as are auto-immune disease systems. Supporting your immune system involves a variety of compounds such as anti-oxidants, vitamins, and minerals. As you age, your body's ability to take up these nutrients is compromised by attrition of various organs and glands. Your ability to produce necessary nutrients from the food you eat may be substantially compromised, so nutrient supplements make good sense. In a previous issue we discussed DHEA as a precursor to many important hormones. Systemic enzymes are another piece of the puzzle.
We are beginning to understand the causes of aging and age-related conditions. We are not yet at the "magic bullet" stage. But we've come a very long way from the 17th Century practices of bleeding and considering dead any patient who cannot fog a mirror. We have effective cures for diseases, treatments for bacterial and viral infections, and the beginnings of treatments for cancer and other age-related illnesses. In the near future, genetic research seems likely to give us even more keys to longevity.
Even so, there is no substitute for healthy habits. Eating good foods in moderation, avoiding the insulin shock of excessive sugars, and getting a suitable amount of exercise remain very important. Habits that deter health such as smoking or drug addiction should be addressed. While we disapprove of the interference with free markets involved in all licensing systems, there is a role for your family doctor and the specialists she can refer you toward for exams, testing, and diagnosis.
Live long.